Game theory and behaviour change
Game Theory has cropped up a fair bit in things that I have read and listened to lately. A trip to the library and a well placed display stand later, and I came back with ‘Hidden Games: The Surprising Power of Game Theory to Explain Irrational Human Behaviour’ by Erez Yoeli and Moshe Hoffman.
Game Theory is based on probability and logical decision making. Unfortunately, applying linear logic models in complex spaces is part of the problem with how we currently do things in public services. However the book also brings game theory into contact with behavioural economics, and this gave me lots to think about.
Understanding the effect of culture
The book breaks down the motivations for behaviour into primary and secondary rewards. Primary rewards are those that humans have evolved to favour, where we are unable to make a choice around whether we want them or not (for example, food). Secondary rewards may be linked to primary rewards, but they are things that we want, not need.
The authors add further clarity to their thinking by examining emic and etic factors. Emic explanations are those steeped in culture, as opposed to etic observations, which are given by an objective observer. Clarifying explanations enables the authors to understand when they should apply game theory. Making the distinction between real and cultural explanations can also help us to think about what tools we use and when we use them.
Bias and asymmetric search
Recently I’ve been looking at how we learn. Training is defined by The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) as “an instructor-led, content-based intervention designed to lead to skills or behaviour changes.” In complex environments there is no one way of doing things, yet the delivery of training from a singular perspective is still the predominant method of learning across public services.
Our learning is biased in a number of ways that make us prone to learn from those in the know. We imitate those who are more successful, prestigious, older and reasonable. Training is the Peter Principle of learning — we have got to where we are from rewards derived from the current system, so doing something different goes against what we have experienced in the past. It’s difficult to unpack our experiences because of the way that we filter information. When we find evidence that supports our theories, we’re more likely to believe it. But when it’s unsupportive, we seldom do. Here’s an example cited in the book:
“When our bathroom scale delivers bad news, we hop off and back on again, just to make sure we didn’t misread the display or put too much pressure on one foot. When our scale delivers good news, we smile and head for the shower. By uncritically accepting evidence when it pleases us, and insisting on more when it doesn’t, we subtly tip the scales in our favour.”
I’m aware that I’m as guilty of this as anyone else. This has prompted me to think about how I can give myself time to reflect and challenge my thinking. The people that I follow on Twitter may reflect my bias, but I’ve found some helpful resources nonetheless. Richard Devine posted an excellent thread on Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’, which includes brilliant case studies of what bias looks like in practice. whatsthepont also shared a post on Spotting the Decoy Effect in Business Case Options Appraisals, where extreme options can make some things appear more favorable.
The importance of challenge
I need to create the space to challenge my own thinking. I’ve certainly gone down the “proceed until apprehended” route in the past, but perhaps Elizabeth Ayer’s post on radiating intent is more appropriate:
“I prefer to shout my intent from the rooftops, loudly enough that the people on the next continent can hear. It’s the turn signal approach, or ‘radiating intent.’”
This openness is key to moving beyond my own mental models, as well as opening myself up to challenge. I know this can be uncomfortable at times, but I hope to open up my decisions to a helpful critique. I’m going to make some space to think more about how I do this, and I look forward to seeing how it affects what I do.
